2025-11-10
Roads, Not Carriages
Imagine if we had given up on cars because the early models were noisy and clunky. We didn’t go back to horse‑drawn carriages. We built the roads.
Imagine if we had given up on cars because the early models were noisy and clunky. We didn’t go back to horse‑drawn carriages. We built the roads. 🚗
Clean energy is at that same moment. Adoption isn’t even—but the answer isn’t to turn back. The answer is to build the grid, the storage, and the market rules so clean power can flow. ⚡
Reading the latest DNV Energy Transition Outlook (link below) makes me thinking:
Grids matter. How much? ~$400B per year today → ~$600–700B per year in the 2030s → ~$1T per year by the 2050s. For context, solar + storage drew $500B+ in 2024. • Translation: On current outlooks, we’ll spend as much to move electricity as to make it from solar.
Solar costs stabilize. After ~8% annual declines for a decade, expect ~5% in the 2020s, ~3% in the 2030s, and <1% in the 2050s. • Translation: Already the cheapest new capacity—and expected to stay cheap. That’s a useful anchor for risk & insurance professionals. Because if operational expenditures are stabilizing, so should insurance costs.
Regional realities differ. What looks stuck in one region may be accelerating in another. • Translation: Don’t be discouraged—this could be a 30‑year buildout.
👉 The lesson? Keep going forward.
Curious: Could large countries add clean generation fast, without grid bottlenecks? Yes. Which one? You know.
Link (DNV, Global Energy Transition Outlook 2025) https://www.dnv.com/energy-transition-outlook/2025/
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