The Uncomfortable Truth

2025 hasn’t been a particularly good year for clean energy. Sometimes we need to ask: why does the energy transition still feel stuck?

👉 One chart explains it.

What looks like a paradox —but isn't —deserves attention: • Renewables’ share of electricity has been rising. • Electricity’s share of total final energy has been flat for 35 years. This is the number that matters most in the long run.

So yes, renewables have been growing in absolute terms. But as a share of total final energy globally, we’re stuck.

So as we prepare to welcome 2026, realism may matter more than optimism. Perhaps, AI can assist the humans solve what humans haven’t in 35 years.

After all, what feeds AI is energy. ⚡

About the author: Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan has been chronicling these structural challenges in his annual energy paper (the publication Eye on the Market from 2021–2025 can be found via Link: https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en/insights/latest-and-featured/eotm)

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